PSTV-A conjecture for Campana points on Fano orbifolds

Let (X,D)(X,D) be a klt Campana orbifold over KK with a good integral model (X,D)(\mathcal{X},\mathcal{D}) over OK,S\mathcal{O}_{K,S}. Let HLH_{\mathcal{L}} be the height associated with an adelically metrized big and nef line bundle, and let aa and bb be defined by

a=inf{tR:t[L]+[KX]+[D]Λeff},a=\inf\{t\in\mathbb{R}:t[L]+[K_X]+[D]\in\Lambda_{\operatorname{eff}}\},

where bb is the codimension of the minimal supported face of Λeff\Lambda_{\operatorname{eff}} containing a[L]+[KX]+[D]a[L]+[K_X]+[D]. Assume that (KX+D)-(K_X+D) is ample, so that the orbifold is Fano, and that the set of Campana points (X,D)(OK,S)(\mathcal{X},\mathcal{D})(\mathcal{O}_{K,S}) is not thin. PSTV-A conjecture. There exists a thin set T\mathcal{T} of Campana OK,S\mathcal{O}_{K,S}-points such that

#{P(X,D)(OK,S)T:HL(P)B}cPSTV-ABa(logB)b1\#\{P\in(\mathcal{X},\mathcal{D})(\mathcal{O}_{K,S})\setminus\mathcal{T}:H_{\mathcal{L}}(P)\leqslant B\}\sim c_{\textrm{PSTV-A}}B^a(\log B)^{b-1}

as BB\to\infty, where cPSTV-A>0c_{\textrm{PSTV-A}}>0 is an explicit constant.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Alec Shute, “On the leading constant in the Manin-type conjecture for Campana points”, arXiv:2104.14946 (2022).

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