Average rank zero for elliptic surfaces ordered by coefficient size

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For positive integers dd and MM, let

Pd(M)={p∈Z[T]:deg⁡(p)=d, μ(p)<M},\mathcal{P}_d(M)=\{p\in\mathbb{Z}[T]:\deg(p)=d,\ \mu(p)<M\},

where μ(p)\mu(p) is the Mahler measure, and define

Sm,n(M)={E:y2=x3+A(T)x+B(T):A∈Pm(M2), B∈Pn(M3), 4A(T)3+27B(T)2≢0}.\mathcal{S}_{m,n}(M)=\{\mathcal{E}:y^2=x^3+A(T)x+B(T):A\in\mathcal{P}_m(M^2),\ B\in\mathcal{P}_n(M^3),\ 4A(T)^3+27B(T)^2\not\equiv0\}.

Here Sm,n=Sm,n(M)\mathcal{S}_{m,n}=\mathcal{S}_{m,n}(M) is the family of elliptic surfaces with fixed positive degrees m,nm,n. Average-rank-zero conjecture. For any fixed positive integers mm and nn,

lim⁡M→∞1#Sm,n(M)∑E∈Sm,n(M)rank⁡E(Q(T))=0.\lim_{M\to\infty}\frac{1}{\#\mathcal{S}_{m,n}(M)}\sum_{\mathcal{E}\in\mathcal{S}_{m,n}(M)}\operatorname{rank}\mathcal{E}(\mathbb{Q}(T))=0.

This is the paper's precise formulation of the claim that 100%100\% of elliptic surfaces have rank zero under ordering by the size of the Weierstrass coefficients. No resolution evidence is supplied in the source.

References

Primary source

Alex Cowan, “Conjecture: 100% of elliptic surfaces over Q have rank zero”, arXiv:2009.08622 (2020).

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