Folklore conjecture on ranks with prescribed torsion

Let $G$ be a torsion group, and let $\mathcal{E}_G$ denote the family of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ with torsion subgroup prescribed by $G$. Folklore conjecture on ranks with prescribed torsion. The proportion of elliptic curves with rank $0$ in $\mathcal{E}_G$ and the proportion of elliptic curves with rank $1$ in $\mathcal{E}_G$ are both $\frac 12$. The conjecture predicts the minimalist rank distribution within every prescribed-torsion family; the source says that evenly distributed root numbers and the authors' one-level density results provide small evidence toward it, but gives no resolution.