Goldfeld's minimalist conjecture for elliptic curves

Let $E$ range over elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$, ordered by naive height, and let rank mean the algebraic or analytic rank as appropriate. Goldfeld's minimalist conjecture. The proportion of elliptic curves with rank $0$ and the proportion of elliptic curves with rank $1$ are both $\frac 12$. This is a central prediction about the distribution of ranks of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ and is presented as widely believed; the source does not state a resolution.