The Malle conjecture for 2-ranks of cyclic cubic and quintic class groups

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Let ℓ∈{3,5}\ell\in\{3,5\} and put q=2ℓ−1q=2^{\ell-1}. For m∈Z≥0∪{∞}m\in\mathbb{Z}_{\geq0}\cup\{\infty\}, define (q)0=1(q)_0=1 and (q)m=∏i=1m(1−q−i)(q)_m=\prod_{i=1}^m(1-q^{-i}) for positive finite mm.

Malle's class-group rank conjecture. As KK ranges over cyclic number fields of degree ℓ\ell, for every r∈Z≥0r\in\mathbb{Z}_{\geq0},

Prob⁡(rk⁡2Cl⁡(K)=(ℓ−1)r)=(1+1q)(q)∞(q2)∞(q)∞21qr(r+2)(q)r.\operatorname{Prob}\left(\operatorname{rk}_2\operatorname{Cl}(K)=(\ell-1)r\right)=\left(1+\frac{1}{\sqrt q}\right)\frac{(\sqrt q)_\infty(q^2)_\infty}{(q)_\infty^2}\frac{1}{\sqrt q^{r(r+2)}(q)_r}.

This is attributed in the source to Malle and corrects the Cohen–Lenstra prediction to account for roots of unity in these fields. The source gives no resolution.

References

Primary source

Benjamin Breen, Ila Varma, John Voight and appendix with Noam Elkies, “On unit signatures and narrow class groups of odd degree abelian number fields”, arXiv:1910.00449 (2021).

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