Largest-prime-gap asymptotic via the interval sieve

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Let WyW_y be the minimum of ∣[0,y]∩S(y/log⁡y)1/2∣|[0,y]\cap\mathcal{S}_{(y/\log y)^{1/2}}| over all choices of residue classes modulo primes up to (y/log⁡y)1/2(y/\log y)^{1/2}, and define

g(u)=max⁡{y:Wylog⁡y≤u}.g(u)=\max\{y:W_y\log y\le u\}.

Let GP(x)G_{\mathcal{P}}(x) denote the largest gap between consecutive primes up to xx, and let ξ=2e−γ\xi=2e^{-\gamma}. Asymptotic for largest gap in the primes.

g((ξ−o(1))log⁡2x)≲GP(x)≲g((ξ+o(1))log⁡2x)(x→∞).g((\xi-o(1))\log^2x)\lesssim G_{\mathcal{P}}(x)\lesssim g((\xi+o(1))\log^2x)\qquad(x\to\infty).

This is the prediction obtained by transferring the rigorously analyzed random-sieve model to the primes. The stronger prediction GP(x)∼ξlog⁡2xG_{\mathcal{P}}(x)\sim\xi\log^2x is conditional on an additional folklore conjecture about the interval sieve.

References

Primary source

William Banks, Kevin Ford and Terence Tao, “Large prime gaps and probabilistic models”, arXiv:1908.08613 (2025).

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