Refined Manin conjecture with the canonical exceptional set

Let XX be a geometrically uniruled, geometrically integral, smooth projective variety over a number field FF, and let LL be a big and nef Q\mathbb Q-divisor on XX. Assume that (X,L)(X,L) is adjoint rigid, so that a(X,L)L+KXa(X,L)L+K_X has Iitaka dimension 00. Let B+(L)\bold B_+(L) be the augmented base locus, let Z0=B+(L)(F)Z_0=\bold B_+(L)(F), and define Z1Z_1 and Z2Z_2 as the unions of the images f(Y(F))f(Y(F)) over the respective classes of FF-thin maps described in the construction: Z1Z_1 uses maps with either dimY<dimX\dim Y<\dim X or a(Y,fL)fL+KYa(Y,f^*L)f^*L+K_Y of positive Iitaka dimension, together with (a(X,L),b(F,X,L))(a(Y,fL),b(F,Y,fL))(a(X,L),b(F,X,L))\leq(a(Y,f^*L),b(F,Y,f^*L)); Z2Z_2 uses dominant face-contracting maps for which a(Y,fL)fL+KYa(Y,f^*L)f^*L+K_Y has Iitaka dimension 00 and the same lexicographic inequality. Refined Manin Conjecture. In Manin's conjecture, assuming a(X,L)L+KXa(X,L)L+K_X is rigid, the exceptional set ZZ can be taken to be

Z=Z0Z1Z2.Z=Z_0\cup Z_1\cup Z_2.

The preceding construction gives a conjectural refinement of the thin exceptional set; the containment of Z0Z1Z2Z_0\cup Z_1\cup Z_2 in a thin subset is established in the cited work using the BAB conjecture, but the asserted replacement of ZZ in Manin's asymptotic remains open.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Sho Tanimoto, “Geometric aspects of Manin's Conjecture”, arXiv:1812.07148 (2018).

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