Refined Manin conjecture with the canonical exceptional set

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Let XX be a geometrically uniruled, geometrically integral, smooth projective variety over a number field FF, and let LL be a big and nef Q\mathbb Q-divisor on XX. Assume that (X,L)(X,L) is adjoint rigid, so that a(X,L)L+KXa(X,L)L+K_X has Iitaka dimension 00. Let B+(L)\bold B_+(L) be the augmented base locus, let Z0=B+(L)(F)Z_0=\bold B_+(L)(F), and define Z1Z_1 and Z2Z_2 as the unions of the images f(Y(F))f(Y(F)) over the respective classes of FF-thin maps described in the construction: Z1Z_1 uses maps with either dim⁡Y<dim⁡X\dim Y<\dim X or a(Y,f∗L)f∗L+KYa(Y,f^*L)f^*L+K_Y of positive Iitaka dimension, together with (a(X,L),b(F,X,L))≤(a(Y,f∗L),b(F,Y,f∗L))(a(X,L),b(F,X,L))\leq(a(Y,f^*L),b(F,Y,f^*L)); Z2Z_2 uses dominant face-contracting maps for which a(Y,f∗L)f∗L+KYa(Y,f^*L)f^*L+K_Y has Iitaka dimension 00 and the same lexicographic inequality. Refined Manin Conjecture. In Manin's conjecture, assuming a(X,L)L+KXa(X,L)L+K_X is rigid, the exceptional set ZZ can be taken to be

Z=Z0∪Z1∪Z2.Z=Z_0\cup Z_1\cup Z_2.

The preceding construction gives a conjectural refinement of the thin exceptional set; the containment of Z0∪Z1∪Z2Z_0\cup Z_1\cup Z_2 in a thin subset is established in the cited work using the BAB conjecture, but the asserted replacement of ZZ in Manin's asymptotic remains open.

References

Primary source

Sho Tanimoto, “Geometric aspects of Manin's Conjecture”, arXiv:1812.07148 (2018).

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