Thin-set version of Manin's conjecture

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Let XX be a smooth projective variety over a number field FF with ample anticanonical class −KX-K_X. Let L=(L,∥⋅∥)\mathcal{L}=(L,\|\cdot\|) be a big and nef adelically metrized line bundle on XX. Define the counting function by

N(Q,L,B)=#{x∈Q∣HL(x)≤B},N(Q,\mathcal L,B)=\#\{x\in Q\mid H_{\mathcal L}(x)\leq B\},

and let a(X,L)a(X,L) be the threshold determined by the pseudo-effective cone, while b(F,X,L)b(F,X,L) is the codimension of its minimal supported face containing a(X,L)[L]+[KX]a(X,L)[L]+[K_X]. A thin subset of X(F)X(F) is a finite union of images πi(Yi(F))\pi_i(Y_i(F)), where each πi:Yi→X\pi_i:Y_i\to X is generically finite onto its image and has no rational section. Manin's conjecture. There exists a thin set Z⊂X(F)Z\subset X(F) such that

N(X(F)∖Z,L,B)∼c(F,X(F)∖Z,L)Ba(X,L)log⁡(B)b(F,X,L)−1,B→∞.N(X(F)\setminus Z,\mathcal L,B)\sim c(F,X(F)\setminus Z,\mathcal L)B^{a(X,L)}\log(B)^{b(F,X,L)-1},\qquad B\to\infty.

Here c(F,X(F)∖Z,L)c(F,X(F)\setminus Z,\mathcal L) is Peyre's constant. This is the thin-set formulation of Manin's conjecture, intended to remove contributions from geometrically incompatible subvarieties and generically finite covers; it remains open in general.

References

Primary source

Brian Lehmann and Sho Tanimoto, “On the geometry of thin exceptional sets in Manin's Conjecture”, arXiv:1607.03499 (2017).

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