2 problems

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Nonlinear hypotheses are susceptible to false confidence
Nonlinearity conjecture. All non-linear hypotheses about $\Theta$ have at least a mild case of false confidence.
Conjectureopenbayesian-inference false-confidence statistical-inferencearXiv posted 2 days ago
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Conjecture on the small lower probability of false-confidence assertions
Let $Q_y$ be a data-dependent precise probability on a parameter space $\Theta$ , and let $A\subseteq\Theta$ be a problematic assertion such that … Define … Let…
Conjectureopenfalse-confidence inferential-models possibility-theoryarXiv posted 2 days ago

Nonlinear hypotheses are susceptible to false confidence