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Conjecture that model aleatory uncertainty reflects the expert's aleatory uncertainty
Let $A$ be an event of interest, let $X$ be the information available to the expert, and let a statistical model of the expert's decision-making process produce a distribution for…
Conjectureopenaleatory-uncertainty expert-elicitation statistical-modelingarXiv posted 2 days ago
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Conjecture that decision uncertainty reflects uncertainty about the prevented event
Let $A$ be an undesirable future event, let $Y$ be a preventative decision intended to prevent $A$ , and let $X$ be the information available to the decision maker at the time. Deci…
Conjectureopendecision-making expert-elicitation uncertaintyarXiv posted 2 days ago

Conjecture that model aleatory uncertainty reflects the expert's aleatory uncertainty