Schroer–Sauer–Ott–Yorke predictability conjecture

Let T ⁣:XXT\colon X \to X be a smooth diffeomorphism of a compact Riemannian manifold XX with a natural measure μ\mu of information dimension ID(μ)=D\operatorname{ID}(\mu)=D. An observable h ⁣:XRh\colon X\to\mathbb R is called almost surely kk-predictable with respect to μ\mu when its kk-delay prediction error vanishes for μ\mu-almost every state. SSOY predictability conjecture. For a generic observable h ⁣:XRh\colon X\to\mathbb R, hh is almost surely kk-predictable with respect to μ\mu for k>Dk>D. This conjecture concerns the number of time-delayed scalar measurements needed to predict future observations of a chaotic system; the paper states that its general version is proved for Lipschitz systems and prevalent Lipschitz observables, while the original smooth natural-measure formulation is thereby recovered in the stated setting.

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Primary source

Krzysztof Barański, Yonatan Gutman and Adam Śpiewak, “Prediction of dynamical systems from time-delayed measurements with self-intersections”, arXiv:2212.13509 (2024).

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