Folklore conjecture on density of pseudo-Anosovs in the mapping class group

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Fix a finite generating set for Modg{\rm Mod}_g, let B(r)B(r) be the ball of radius rr, and define the density of S⊂ModgS\subset {\rm Mod}_g by

d(S)=lim⁡r→∞#(B(r)∩S)#B(r).d(S)=\lim_{r\to\infty}\frac{\#(B(r)\cap S)}{\#B(r)}.

Let P{\cal P} be the set of pseudo-Anosov elements of Modg{\rm Mod}_g. Density conjecture for pseudo-Anosovs.

d(P)=1.d({\cal P})=1.

Random-walk and other probabilistic results show pseudo-Anosovs are prevalent in related senses, but the stated density conjecture does not follow directly from those results.

References

Primary source

Benson Farb, “Some problems on mapping class groups and moduli space”, arXiv:math/0606432 (2006).

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