RLD high-fitness population-density conjecture

From papers

Consider the random location deaths (RLD) process with birth probability pp, death probability q=1pq=1-p, and parameter rr. Let Ln(a)L_n(a) be the number of species alive at time nn whose fitness is at most aa, and define

fc=qrpq(1r).f^\ddagger_c=\frac{qr}{p-q(1-r)}.

Assume p>qp>q. RLD population-density conjecture. For every fcab1f^\ddagger_c\leq a\leq b\leq1,

Ln(b)Ln(a)nP(pq)(ba1fc),as n.\frac{L_n(b)-L_n(a)}{n}\stackrel{\mathbb{P}}{\to}(p-q)\left(\frac{b-a}{1-f^\ddagger_c}\right),\qquad\text{as }n\to\infty.

This predicts a deterministic limiting density of surviving RLD species above the critical fitness threshold and is presented as an unproved consequence of the conjectured threshold behavior.

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Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Peter Braunsteins and Joseph Rolfe, “Models for species evolution with random deaths”, arXiv:2607.12061 (2026).

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