Critical behavior conjecture at the RLD threshold

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Consider the random location deaths (RLD) process: species are born with probability pp, die with probability q=1−pq=1-p, and, on a death event, the least fit species is removed with probability rr, while otherwise the removal rule uses a uniform random location. For f∈[0,1]f\in[0,1], let B(f)\mathcal{B}(f) be the set of birth times of species with fitness below ff, and let BiB_i denote its ordered elements. Define

fc‡=qrp−q(1−r).f^\ddagger_c=\frac{qr}{p-q(1-r)}.

Assume p>qp>q. RLD critical-behavior conjecture. If f=fc‡f=f^\ddagger_c, then

E[Bi+1−Bi]→∞as i→∞,\mathbb{E}[B_{i+1}-B_i]\to\infty\quad\text{as }i\to\infty,

and if f>fc‡f>f^\ddagger_c, then

∣B(f)∣<∞a.s.|\mathcal{B}(f)|<\infty\quad\text{a.s.}

This complements the proved subcritical result and predicts the phase transition at fc‡f^\ddagger_c for the RLD process. The conjectured assertions remain unproved in the source.

References

Primary source

Peter Braunsteins and Joseph Rolfe, “Models for species evolution with random deaths”, arXiv:2607.12061 (2026).

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