Equal-probability conjecture for the expected sibling deficit

There are NN coupon types, with draws made independently according to a probability vector p=(p1,,pN)\mathbf{p}=(p_1,\ldots,p_N) in the open simplex

PN={pRN:pk>0, k=1Npk=1},\mathcal{P}_N=\{\mathbf{p}\in\mathbb{R}^N:p_k>0,\ \sum_{k=1}^N p_k=1\},

and let TNT_N be the first time every type has appeared. For an integer j2j\geq 2, define

UjN=#{k{1,,N}:type k is drawn fewer than j times by TN}.U_j^N=\#\{k\in\{1,\ldots,N\}:\text{type }k\text{ is drawn fewer than }j\text{ times by }T_N\}.

Let u=(1/N,,1/N)\mathbf{u}=(1/N,\ldots,1/N) be the uniform probability vector. Equal-probability conjecture. For every N2N\geq 2 and every integer j2j\geq 2, the map pE[UjN]\mathbf{p}\mapsto\mathbb{E}[U_j^N] on PN\mathcal{P}_N attains its maximum at the uniform vector u\mathbf{u}, and only there. This asserts that equal coupon probabilities uniquely maximize the expected deficit in the siblings model; the surrounding discussion describes the equiprobable distribution as extremal, while the conjecture remains unresolved in the supplied source.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Aristides V. Doumas and S. Spektor, “Equal probabilities maximize the expected deficit in the siblings of the coupon collector”, arXiv:2606.21591 (2026).

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