Equal-probability conjecture for the expected sibling deficit
There are coupon types, with draws made independently according to a probability vector in the open simplex
and let be the first time every type has appeared. For an integer , define
Let be the uniform probability vector. Equal-probability conjecture. For every and every integer , the map on attains its maximum at the uniform vector , and only there. This asserts that equal coupon probabilities uniquely maximize the expected deficit in the siblings model; the surrounding discussion describes the equiprobable distribution as extremal, while the conjecture remains unresolved in the supplied source.
References
Primary source
Aristides V. Doumas and S. Spektor, “Equal probabilities maximize the expected deficit in the siblings of the coupon collector”, arXiv:2606.21591 (2026).
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