Equal-probability conjecture for the expected sibling deficit
Equal-probability conjecture for the expected sibling deficit
There are coupon types, with draws made independently according to a probability vector in the open simplex
and let be the first time every type has appeared. For an integer , define
Let be the uniform probability vector. Equal-probability conjecture. For every and every integer , the map on attains its maximum at the uniform vector , and only there. This asserts that equal coupon probabilities uniquely maximize the expected deficit in the siblings model; the surrounding discussion describes the equiprobable distribution as extremal, while the conjecture remains unresolved in the supplied source.
Sources & referencesView supporting material
Primary source
Aristides V. Doumas and S. Spektor, “Equal probabilities maximize the expected deficit in the siblings of the coupon collector”, arXiv:2606.21591 (2026).
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