Equal-probability conjecture for the expected sibling deficit

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There are NN coupon types, with draws made independently according to a probability vector p=(p1,…,pN)\mathbf{p}=(p_1,\ldots,p_N) in the open simplex

PN={p∈RN:pk>0, ∑k=1Npk=1},\mathcal{P}_N=\{\mathbf{p}\in\mathbb{R}^N:p_k>0,\ \sum_{k=1}^N p_k=1\},

and let TNT_N be the first time every type has appeared. For an integer j≥2j\geq 2, define

UjN=#{k∈{1,…,N}:type k is drawn fewer than j times by TN}.U_j^N=\#\{k\in\{1,\ldots,N\}:\text{type }k\text{ is drawn fewer than }j\text{ times by }T_N\}.

Let u=(1/N,…,1/N)\mathbf{u}=(1/N,\ldots,1/N) be the uniform probability vector. Equal-probability conjecture. For every N≥2N\geq 2 and every integer j≥2j\geq 2, the map p↦E[UjN]\mathbf{p}\mapsto\mathbb{E}[U_j^N] on PN\mathcal{P}_N attains its maximum at the uniform vector u\mathbf{u}, and only there. This asserts that equal coupon probabilities uniquely maximize the expected deficit in the siblings model; the surrounding discussion describes the equiprobable distribution as extremal, while the conjecture remains unresolved in the supplied source.

References

Primary source

Aristides V. Doumas and S. Spektor, “Equal probabilities maximize the expected deficit in the siblings of the coupon collector”, arXiv:2606.21591 (2026).

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