Density threshold conjecture for partial Latin squares in random Latin squares

For a non-empty partial Latin square PP, define its density by

m(P):=min{RP+CP+SPPP:PP}.m(P):=\min\left\{\frac{|\mathcal{R}_{P'}|+|\mathcal{C}_{P'}|+|\mathcal{S}_{P'}|-|P'|}{|P'|}:\varnothing\ne P'\subseteq P\right\}.

Let L\mathbf{L} be a random Latin square of order nn. The density threshold conjecture. As nn\to\infty,

{P(L contains an isotopic copy of P)0if m(P)<0,P(L contains an isotopic copy of P)1if m(P)>0.\begin{cases} \mathop{\mathbb{P}}\nolimits(\mathbf{L}\text{ contains an isotopic copy of }P)\to 0 & \text{if }m(P)<0,\\ \mathop{\mathbb{P}}\nolimits(\mathbf{L}\text{ contains an isotopic copy of }P)\to 1 & \text{if }m(P)>0. \end{cases}

When m(P)=0m(P)=0, the source additionally expects the number of copies of PP in L\mathbf{L} to have a Poisson distribution, mentioning 3×33\times3 subsquares as an example. The threshold dichotomy itself remains conjectural in the supplied text.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Jack Allsop and Patrick Morris, “Universal probability bounds for partial Latin squares”, arXiv:2606.18174 (2026).

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