Keating–Snaith moment conjecture for the Riemann zeta-function

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Let κ=(κ1,κ2)∈C2\boldsymbol{\kappa}=(\kappa_{1},\kappa_{2})\in\mathbb{C}^{2} satisfy Re⁡(κ1+κ2)>−1\operatorname{Re}(\kappa_{1}+\kappa_{2})>-1, and define

κ∘λ=κ1λ+κ2λ‾\boldsymbol{\kappa}\circ\lambda=\kappa_{1}\lambda+\kappa_{2}\overline{\lambda}

for λ∈C\lambda\in\mathbb{C}. Let G(z)G(z) denote the Barnes GG-function, and define

a(κ)=∏p{(1−p−1)κ1κ2∑m=0∞Γ(κ1+m)m! Γ(κ1)Γ(κ2+m)m! Γ(κ2)p−m},a(\boldsymbol{\kappa})=\prod_{p}\left\{(1-p^{-1})^{\kappa_{1}\kappa_{2}}\sum_{m=0}^{\infty}\frac{\Gamma(\kappa_{1}+m)}{m!\,\Gamma(\kappa_{1})}\frac{\Gamma(\kappa_{2}+m)}{m!\,\Gamma(\kappa_{2})}p^{-m}\right\}, g(κ)=G(1+κ1)G(1+κ2)G(1+κ1+κ2).g(\boldsymbol{\kappa})=\frac{G(1+\kappa_{1})G(1+\kappa_{2})}{G(1+\kappa_{1}+\kappa_{2})}.

Keating–Snaith moment conjecture. For every such κ\boldsymbol{\kappa},

lim⁡T→∞1T(log⁡T)κ1κ2∫0Texp⁡(κ∘log⁡ζ(1/2+it)) dt=a(κ)g(κ).\lim_{T\to\infty}\frac{1}{T(\log T)^{\kappa_{1}\kappa_{2}}}\int_{0}^{T}\exp\bigl(\boldsymbol{\kappa}\circ\log\zeta(1/2+it)\bigr)\,dt=a(\boldsymbol{\kappa})g(\boldsymbol{\kappa}).

This conjecture predicts the precise asymptotic moments of the zeta-function on the critical line, with an arithmetic factor and a random-matrix factor. It is essentially due to Keating and Snaith and remains open in this generality.

References

Primary source

Masahiro Mine, “Connection between the Riemann zeta-function and random matrices via hyperfunctions”, arXiv:2606.07312 (2026).

Additional references

14 papers in this index state this conjecture (2002–2026). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:2601.13488, arXiv:2509.20335, arXiv:2509.07788, arXiv:2306.16487, arXiv:2104.07403, arXiv:1302.5032, arXiv:1208.1131, arXiv:1207.4969, arXiv:1201.4478, arXiv:math/0612348, arXiv:math/0511182, arXiv:math/0307213, and 1 more.

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