Geometric Manin's conjecture on the number of Manin components

Let XX be a smooth Fano variety over C\mathbb C with Brauer group Br(X)Br(X). Let CC be a smooth connected genus gg curve. A component of Mor(C,X,α)\operatorname{Mor}(C,X,\alpha) is understood to be a Manin component when it is one of the components distinguished by Geometric Manin's conjecture from exceptional components. Geometric Manin's conjecture (IV). There exists a curve class βNef1(X)Z\beta \in Nef_1(X)_{\mathbb Z} such that for all αβ+Nef1(X)Z\alpha \in \beta + Nef_1(X)_{\mathbb Z}, there are exactly Br(X)|Br(X)| many Manin components in Mor(C,X,α)\operatorname{Mor}(C, X,\alpha). This conjecture is part of the geometric analogue of Manin's conjecture: Manin components are intended to capture the expected contribution of dominant families of curves, while exceptional components are ignored. Its resolution status is not specified in the source.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Enhao Feng and Fumiya Okamura, “Moduli space of genus one curves on quartic and quintic del Pezzo threefolds”, arXiv:2606.00876 (2026).

Additional references

8 papers in this index state this conjecture (2017–2026). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:2601.09227, arXiv:2501.09269, arXiv:2401.15633, arXiv:2209.05517, arXiv:2110.06660, arXiv:2104.03345, arXiv:1702.08508.

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