Geometric Manin's conjecture on the number of Manin components

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Let XX be a smooth Fano variety over C\mathbb C with Brauer group Br(X)Br(X). Let CC be a smooth connected genus gg curve. A component of Mor⁡(C,X,α)\operatorname{Mor}(C,X,\alpha) is understood to be a Manin component when it is one of the components distinguished by Geometric Manin's conjecture from exceptional components. Geometric Manin's conjecture (IV). There exists a curve class β∈Nef1(X)Z\beta \in Nef_1(X)_{\mathbb Z} such that for all α∈β+Nef1(X)Z\alpha \in \beta + Nef_1(X)_{\mathbb Z}, there are exactly ∣Br(X)∣|Br(X)| many Manin components in Mor⁡(C,X,α)\operatorname{Mor}(C, X,\alpha). This conjecture is part of the geometric analogue of Manin's conjecture: Manin components are intended to capture the expected contribution of dominant families of curves, while exceptional components are ignored. Its resolution status is not specified in the source.

References

Primary source

Enhao Feng and Fumiya Okamura, “Moduli space of genus one curves on quartic and quintic del Pezzo threefolds”, arXiv:2606.00876 (2026).

Additional references

8 papers in this index state this conjecture (2017–2026). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:2601.09227, arXiv:2501.09269, arXiv:2401.15633, arXiv:2209.05517, arXiv:2110.06660, arXiv:2104.03345, arXiv:1702.08508.

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