Pal's permanent asymptotic conjecture for symmetric cost functions

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Let C:[0,1]×[0,1]→R\mathcal{C}:[0,1]\times[0,1]\to\mathbb{R} be twice continuously differentiable up to the boundary, symmetric in its two variables, zero on the diagonal, and satisfy C(1−x,1−y)=C(x,y)\mathcal{C}(1-x,1-y)=\mathcal{C}(x,y). Let α,β:[0,1]→R\alpha,\beta:[0,1]\to\mathbb{R} be such that α(x)+β(y)\alpha(x)+\beta(y) is determined by

∫01exp⁡(−C(x,y)−α(x)−β(y)) dy=1,\int_0^1\exp\left(-\mathcal{C}(x,y)-\alpha(x)-\beta(y)\right)\,dy=1,

and

∫01exp⁡(−C(x,y)−α(x)−β(y)) dx=1.\int_0^1\exp\left(-\mathcal{C}(x,y)-\alpha(x)-\beta(y)\right)\,dx=1.

Define Λ[C]\Lambda[\mathcal{C}] as in the preceding setup, and let ρ(x,y)=exp⁡(−C(x,y)−α(x)−β(y))\rho(x,y)=\exp(-\mathcal{C}(x,y)-\alpha(x)-\beta(y)). Let II be the identity operator on L2([0,1])L^2([0,1]), let JJ be the rank-one operator Jf(x)=∫01f(y) dyJf(x)=\int_0^1f(y)\,dy, and let TT be the trace-class operator

Tf(x)=∫01ρ(x,y)f(y) dy.Tf(x)=\int_0^1\rho(x,y)f(y)\,dy.

Set D[C]=det⁡F(I+J−T∗T)\mathcal{D}[\mathcal{C}]=\det_F(I+J-T^*T). Pal's conjecture. As n→∞n\to\infty,

1n!perm⁡((exp⁡(−C(i/n,j/n)): i,j∈[n]))∼exp⁡(nΛ[C])D[C].\frac{1}{n!}\operatorname{perm}\Big(\big(\exp(-\mathcal{C}(i/n,j/n)):\ i,j\in[n]\big)\Big)\sim\frac{\exp(n\Lambda[\mathcal{C}])}{\sqrt{\mathcal{D}[\mathcal{C}]}}.

Pal motivated this conjecture by removing an additional source of randomness from earlier precise asymptotic results; the conjectured Fredholm-determinant correction is intended to capture the resulting second-order asymptotics. The paper discusses heuristic and combinatorial arguments, but the conjecture remains open in the supplied context.

References

Primary source

Andrea Ottolini and Shannon Starr, “Pal's permanent conjecture: proof for block uniform matrices”, arXiv:2605.25274 (2026).

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