Kuperberg's uniform Poisson conjecture for primes in short intervals

From papers

Let π(t)\pi(t) denote the number of primes at most tt. For a real parameter λ=(logx)o(1)\lambda=(\log x)^{o(1)} and an integer k(log2x)2k\ll (\log_2 x)^2, count integers nxn\leqslant x according to the number of primes in the interval (n,n+λlogx](n,n+\lambda\log x]. Kuperberg's conjecture.

{nx:π(n+λlogx)π(n)=k}xeλλkk!(x).\big|\{n\leqslant x:\pi(n+\lambda\log x)-\pi(n)=k\}\big|\sim x\frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^k}{k!}\quad(x\rightarrow\infty).

This is a uniform Poisson law for prime counts in short intervals, extending the fixed-parameter heuristic to slowly growing λ\lambda and moderately growing kk; the source gives no resolution.

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Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Abhishek Jha, “The Poisson Tail Conjecture for Primes in Short Intervals”, arXiv:2605.23014 (2026).

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