Exponential upper-bound conjecture for the strong Tic-Tac-Toe threshold

From papers

Let qq be a prime power. In the strong (m,n)q(m,n)_q-Tic-Tac-Toe game on the affine space 4Fqm44\mathbb{F}_q^m4, let T(n,q)T(n,q) denote the smallest dimension mm for which the first player has a winning strategy. Exponential threshold conjecture. For every prime power qq, there exists a constant Cq>0C_q>0 such that

T(n,q)CqqnT(n,q)\le C_q q^n

for every n1n\ge 1. The conjecture is motivated by the known exponential upper bound for q=2q=2 and the corresponding Erdős–Selfridge lower bound; establishing such an upper bound for every prime power remains open.

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Primary source

Luca Bastioni, Alessandro Giannoni and Javier Lobillo-Olmedo, “Thresholds for Tic-Tac-Toe on Finite Affine Spaces”, arXiv:2605.05455 (2026).

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