Lang–Trotter conjecture for simultaneous supersingular reduction

About 19 years old · traced to

Let (E1,E2)(E_1,E_2) be a pair of elliptic curves defined over Q\mathbb{Q}. Assume that neither curve has complex multiplication and that they are not isogenous over Q‾\overline{\mathbb{Q}}. Define

πE1,E2(x):=#{p≤x:E1 and E2 have supersingular reduction modulo p}.\pi_{E_1,E_2}(x):=\#\left\{p\leq x:E_1\text{ and }E_2\text{ have supersingular reduction modulo }p\right\}.

Lang–Trotter conjecture for pairs. There exists a non-negative constant cE1,E2c_{E_1,E_2} such that

πE1,E2(x)∼cE1,E2log⁡log⁡x\pi_{E_1,E_2}(x)\sim c_{E_1,E_2}\log\log x

as x→∞x\to\infty.

Lang and Trotter proposed this asymptotic as part of a probabilistic model for Frobenius traces, based on Sato–Tate heuristics. The source recalls it as an input for subsequent height bounds and gives no resolution status.

References

Primary source

Christopher Daw and Georgios Papas, “Lang-Trotter phenomena and unlikely intersections”, arXiv:2605.00759 (2026).

Additional references

21 papers in this index state this conjecture (2007–2026). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:2509.16848, arXiv:2309.09938, arXiv:2206.00872, arXiv:2108.08727, arXiv:2106.01517, arXiv:2101.06202, arXiv:2012.12534, arXiv:2006.11269, arXiv:1906.00632, arXiv:1904.08296, arXiv:1711.00176, arXiv:1710.02125, and 8 more.

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