Conjecture on simultaneous supersingular reduction for elliptic-curve pairs

Let EE and EE' be two elliptic curves defined over a number field KK. Assume that EE and EE' are non-CM and non-isogenous over Q\overline{\mathbb{Q}}. Let

πE,E,K(x):={px:vΣssing(E,E) with vp},\pi_{E,E',K}(x):=\left|\left\{p\leq x:\exists v\in\Sigma_{\operatorname{ssing}}(E,E')\text{ with }v\mid p\right\}\right|,

where Σssing(E,E)\Sigma_{\operatorname{ssing}}(E,E') is the set of finite places at which both curves have supersingular reduction. Simultaneous supersingular reduction conjecture. There exists a constant C(E,E,K)0C(E,E',K)\geq 0 such that

πE,E,K(x)C(E,E,K)loglogx\pi_{E,E',K}(x)\leq C(E,E',K)\log\log x

as xx\to\infty.

This is a number-field analogue of the Lang–Trotter heuristic for pairs and would provide the sparsity estimate needed in the paper's height-bound argument. The source presents it as a natural conjecture and gives no resolution evidence.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Christopher Daw and Georgios Papas, “Lang-Trotter phenomena and unlikely intersections”, arXiv:2605.00759 (2026).

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