Kawamata–Morrison–Totaro arithmetic cone conjecture

Let (X,B)(X,B) be a fixed projective wlc model of dimension dZ2d\in\mathbb{Z}_{\ge 2} over YY, with KX+BR,Y0K_X+B\sim_{\mathbb{R},Y}0, and assume abundance for (X,B)(X,B) and all its projective wlc models. Let NR1(X/Y)N^1_{\mathbb{R}}(X/Y) be the relative Néron–Severi space, and let Nefe(X/Y)\textnormal{Nef}^e(X/Y) and Move(X/Y)\overline{\textnormal{Mov}}^e(X/Y) denote the effective nef and effective closed movable cones. Let Nef+(X/Y)\textnormal{Nef}^+(X/Y) and Mov+(X/Y)\overline{\textnormal{Mov}}^+(X/Y) be their rational convex hulls. Here Aut(X/Y,B)\textnormal{Aut}(X/Y,B) and PsAut(X/Y,B)\textnormal{PsAut}(X/Y,B) act by pullback on NR1(X/Y)N^1_{\mathbb{R}}(X/Y).

Arithmetic cone conjecture. Suppose (X,B)(X,B) is klt. Then there is a rational polyhedral cone ΠNefe(X/Y)\Pi\subseteq\textnormal{Nef}^e(X/Y) such that

Aut(X/Y,B)Π=Nefe(X/Y)=Nef+(X/Y),\textnormal{Aut}(X/Y, B) \cdot \Pi = \textnormal{Nef}^e(X/Y) = \textnormal{Nef}^+(X/Y),

and Int(Π)Int(φΠ)=\operatorname{Int}(\Pi)\cap\operatorname{Int}(\varphi^*\Pi)=\emptyset for every φAut(X,B)\varphi\in\textnormal{Aut}(X,B) unless φ=id\varphi^*=\operatorname{id}. There is also a rational polyhedral cone ΠMove(X/Y)\Pi^\prime\subseteq\overline{\textnormal{Mov}}^e(X/Y) such that

PsAut(X/Y,B)Π=Move(X/Y)=Mov+(X/Y),\textnormal{PsAut}(X/Y, B) \cdot \Pi^\prime = \overline{\textnormal{Mov}}^e(X/Y) = \overline{\textnormal{Mov}}^+(X/Y),

and Int(Π)Int(φΠ)=\operatorname{Int}(\Pi^\prime)\cap\operatorname{Int}(\varphi^*\Pi^\prime)=\emptyset for every φPsAut(X,B)\varphi\in\textnormal{PsAut}(X,B) unless φ=id\varphi^*=\operatorname{id}.

This is the cone conjecture in its nef and movable forms: the relevant cones should admit rational polyhedral fundamental domains for the automorphism and pseudo-automorphism actions. The source refers to recent progress and an overview, but the supplied status is unknown.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Daniil Serebrennikov, “Constructibility aspects of the cone conjecture”, arXiv:2604.27303 (2026).

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