Doumas–Papanicolaou's finite variance-minimization conjecture for the double Dixie cup problem

Let mm and NN be fixed, let pp range over the probability simplex on NN coupon types, and let Tm(N)T_m(N) denote the number of draws needed to collect at least mm copies of every type. For a probability vector pp, write Varp(Tm(N))\operatorname{Var}_p(T_m(N)) for the variance under the corresponding coupon-collection process, and let

u=(1/N,,1/N).u=(1/N,\ldots,1/N).

Finite variance extremality. The equal-probability vector ν\nu minimizes

pVarp(Tm(N))p\mapsto \operatorname{Var}_p(T_m(N))

over the probability simplex. The conjecture concerns variance minimization in the nonuniform double Dixie cup problem. Its m=1m=1 case was later proved by Yu, while the statement for general fixed mm remains unresolved in the supplied source.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Christopher D. Long, “Terminal Defects, Growing Multiplicity, and Variance Extremality in the Double Dixie Cup Problem”, arXiv:2604.25108 (2026).

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