Doumas–Papanicolaou's finite variance-minimization conjecture for the double Dixie cup problem

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Let mm and NN be fixed, let pp range over the probability simplex on NN coupon types, and let Tm(N)T_m(N) denote the number of draws needed to collect at least mm copies of every type. For a probability vector pp, write Var⁡p(Tm(N))\operatorname{Var}_p(T_m(N)) for the variance under the corresponding coupon-collection process, and let

u=(1/N,…,1/N).u=(1/N,\ldots,1/N).

Finite variance extremality. The equal-probability vector ν\nu minimizes

p↦Var⁡p(Tm(N))p\mapsto \operatorname{Var}_p(T_m(N))

over the probability simplex. The conjecture concerns variance minimization in the nonuniform double Dixie cup problem. Its m=1m=1 case was later proved by Yu, while the statement for general fixed mm remains unresolved in the supplied source.

References

Primary source

Christopher D. Long, “Terminal Defects, Growing Multiplicity, and Variance Extremality in the Double Dixie Cup Problem”, arXiv:2604.25108 (2026).

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