Doumas–Papanicolaou's finite variance-minimization conjecture for the double Dixie cup problem
Doumas–Papanicolaou's finite variance-minimization conjecture for the double Dixie cup problem
Let and be fixed, let range over the probability simplex on coupon types, and let denote the number of draws needed to collect at least copies of every type. For a probability vector , write for the variance under the corresponding coupon-collection process, and let
Finite variance extremality. The equal-probability vector minimizes
over the probability simplex. The conjecture concerns variance minimization in the nonuniform double Dixie cup problem. Its case was later proved by Yu, while the statement for general fixed remains unresolved in the supplied source.
Sources & referencesView supporting material
Primary source
Christopher D. Long, “Terminal Defects, Growing Multiplicity, and Variance Extremality in the Double Dixie Cup Problem”, arXiv:2604.25108 (2026).
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