The saturation conjecture for Markov polynomials

Let ρ=ab\rho=\frac{a}{b}\frac{}{} be a rational number in [0,1][0,1], and write the numerator of its Markov polynomial as

Pρ(u,v,w)=Aijuivjwa+b1ij.P_{\rho}(u,v,w)=\sum A_{ij}u^iv^jw^{a+b-1-i-j}.

Its Newton polygon is

Δρ=Conv{(i,j):Aij0}.\Delta_{\rho}=\operatorname{Conv}\lbrace(i,j):A_{ij}\neq 0\rbrace.

Saturation conjecture. The terms that appear in the numerator of a Markov polynomial MρM_{\rho} are precisely those corresponding to the integer lattice points in the Newton polygon Δρ\Delta_{\rho}; equivalently, every point of ΔρZ2\Delta_{\rho}\cap\mathbb{Z}^2 corresponds to a monomial with nonzero coefficient in PρP_{\rho}.

This conjecture asserts that the support of each Markov polynomial saturates its Newton polygon at all integer lattice points. The surrounding text attributes the Newton-polygon description and the conjecture to earlier work, but no resolution status is supplied here.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Sam J. Evans, “Saturation of Markov Polynomials”, arXiv:2604.18333 (2026).

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