Fiorilli's generalized Skewes-number growth conjecture for quadratic residue races

For an integer qq, let ϱ(q)\varrho(q) denote the number of square roots of 11 modulo qq, let rad(q)\operatorname{rad}(q) be its radical, and let xq;R,NRx_{q;R,NR} be the generalized Skewes' number for the race between quadratic residues and nonresidues modulo qq. If (qn)n1(q_n)_{n\geqslant 1} is a sequence of integers such that

ϱ(qn)lograd(qn),\frac{\varrho(q_n)}{\log \operatorname{rad}(q_n)}\to\infty,

then Fiorilli's conjecture.

loglogxqn;R,NRϱ(qn)lograd(qn).\log\log x_{q_n;R,NR}\asymp \frac{\varrho(q_n)}{\log \operatorname{rad}(q_n)}.

This predicts the growth of the first occurrence of the rare event in which quadratic residues collectively outperform nonresidues in a prime number race. The conjecture is attributed to Fiorilli; no resolution is given here.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Alexandre Bailleul, Mounir Hayani and Théo Untrau, “A Wasserstein metric approach to generalized Skewes' numbers. I. Prime number races”, arXiv:2603.20093 (2026).

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