Lee's polynomial anticoncentration conjecture for random spanning trees

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Let dd be sufficiently large, let GG be a connected graph with nn vertices and minimum degree at least dd, and let T\mathcal{T} be a uniformly random spanning tree of GG.

Lee's conjecture. For every tree TT,

P(T≅T)≤n−Ω(1).\mathbb{P}(\mathcal{T} \cong T) \le n^{-\Omega(1)}.

This conjecture seeks a polynomial anticoncentration bound in graphs of large minimum degree, generalizing the exponential anticoncentration known for almost regular graphs. The complete bipartite graph Kd,n−dK_{d,n-d} shows that an exponential bound in nn is impossible in this setting.

References

Primary source

Veronica Bitonti, Lukas Michel and Alex Scott, “Anticoncentration of random spanning trees in graphs with large minimum degree”, arXiv:2603.17630 (2026).

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