Lee's polynomial anticoncentration conjecture for random spanning trees

Let dd be sufficiently large, let GG be a connected graph with nn vertices and minimum degree at least dd, and let T\mathcal{T} be a uniformly random spanning tree of GG.

Lee's conjecture. For every tree TT,

P(TT)nΩ(1).\mathbb{P}(\mathcal{T} \cong T) \le n^{-\Omega(1)}.

This conjecture seeks a polynomial anticoncentration bound in graphs of large minimum degree, generalizing the exponential anticoncentration known for almost regular graphs. The complete bipartite graph Kd,ndK_{d,n-d} shows that an exponential bound in nn is impossible in this setting.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Veronica Bitonti, Lukas Michel and Alex Scott, “Anticoncentration of random spanning trees in graphs with large minimum degree”, arXiv:2603.17630 (2026).

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