The observable-specific weak-mixing conjecture for phantom gain discrepancies

Let TT be the odd-to-odd Syracuse map, let n0n_0 be odd, and let hKh_K be the phantom gain observable at depth KK, with reference mean R(K)R(K). Define

ηK(n0)=lim supN1Ni=1NhK(Ti(n0)mod2K)R(K).\eta_K(n_0)=\limsup_{N\to\infty}\left|\frac1N\sum_{i=1}^N h_K\bigl(T^i(n_0)\bmod 2^K\bigr)-R(K)\right|.

Observable-specific weak-mixing conjecture. For every odd starting value n0n_0,

K3ηK(n0)<εR0.326.\sum_{K\ge3}\eta_K(n_0)<\varepsilon-R\approx0.326.

This is a weaker, observable-specific target than full total-variation equidistribution and is intended to supply the quantitative error budget needed by the phantom-gain reduction. Its status is open in the paper.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Edward Y. Chang, “Exploring Collatz Dynamics with Human-LLM Collaboration”, arXiv:2603.11066 (2026).

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