The Orbit Equidistribution Conjecture for Collatz orbits

Let TT denote the odd-to-odd Syracuse map, let n0n_0 be odd, and define ai=Ti(n0)mod2Ma_i=T^i(n_0)\bmod 2^M. Let μorb,N=1Ni=1Nδai\mu_{\mathrm{orb},N}=\frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^N\delta_{a_i} and let μU\mu_U be the uniform distribution on the admissible residue classes modulo 2M(N)2^{M(N)}. The Orbit Equidistribution Conjecture. There exists a function M(N)M(N)\to\infty such that

μorb,NμUTV0\|\mu_{\mathrm{orb},N}-\mu_U\|_{\mathrm{TV}}\to0

as NN\to\infty modulo 2M(N)2^{M(N)}, uniformly in the depth. In particular, fixed-modulus equidistribution follows, and the conjecture would provide the tail control needed to pass from truncated to full orbitwise means. The paper presents this as an unproved orbitwise hypothesis supporting its conditional reductions.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Edward Y. Chang, “Exploring Collatz Dynamics with Human-LLM Collaboration”, arXiv:2603.11066 (2026).

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