Extremal critical collapse conjecture

Let $\widehat{\mathfrak M}$ be a moduli space of Cauchy data on $\mathbb R^3$ for a matter-model and symmetry-class combination in which an exact extremal Kerr--Newman event horizon can form in finite time. An interpolating family is a continuous family $\{\Psi_p\}_{p\in[0,1]}\subset\widehat{\mathfrak M}$ with $\Psi_0\in\widehat{\mathfrak M}_\mathrm{non}$ and $\Psi_1\in\widehat{\mathfrak M}_\mathrm{black}$; its critical parameter is $p_*\doteq\sup\{p\in[0,1]:\Psi_p\in\widehat{\mathfrak M}_\mathrm{non}\}$. Extremal critical collapse conjecture. There exist data producing an exactly extremal Kerr--Newman event horizon after a stationary subextremal apparent horizon, with the event horizon absent from the initial Cauchy hypersurface; there exist interpolating families whose critical solution forms an asymptotically extremal Kerr--Newman black hole; near such a critical solution, the threshold has the stated Kerr--Newman structure, scaling laws, and horizon instabilities. This conjecture was disproved according to the supplied status evidence.