Ng's large-deviation conjecture for the summatory Möbius function

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Let M(x)=∑n≤xμ(n)M(x)=\sum_{n\leq x}\mu(n) denote the summatory Möbius function. Ng's large-deviation conjecture. There exists a constant B>0B>0 such that

lim⁡‾‾x→∞M(x)x1/2(log⁡log⁡log⁡x)5/4=±B.\overline{\underline{\lim}}_{x\to\infty}\frac{M(x)}{x^{1/2}(\log\log\log x)^{5/4}}=\pm B.

This conjecture concerns the precise scale of unusually large values of the summatory Möbius function and is associated in the paper with large-deviation analysis; it remains open.

References

Primary source

Caio Bueno, “Distribution of sums involving Dirichlet characters over the k-free integers”, arXiv:2602.23100 (2026).

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