Aldous's instability conjecture for backoff protocols

From papers

Consider a multiple-access channel in discrete time with Poisson arrivals of mean birth rate λ>0\lambda>0. A backoff protocol is specified by a send sequence p=(p0,p1,p2,)\overline{p}=(p_0,p_1,p_2,\ldots), where a message that has experienced kk collisions sends at each subsequent step with probability pkp_k and remains silent with probability 1pk1-p_k. Aldous's conjecture. No backoff process is stable for any birth rate λ>0\lambda>0. This conjecture generalizes Aldous's result that binary exponential backoff is unstable for every positive birth rate. The paper proves the conjecture, so the claim is solved.

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Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Leslie Ann Goldberg and John Lapinskas, “The Instability of all Backoff Protocols”, arXiv:2602.21315 (2026).

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