Aldous's instability conjecture for backoff protocols

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Consider a multiple-access channel in discrete time with Poisson arrivals of mean birth rate λ>0\lambda>0. A backoff protocol is specified by a send sequence p‾=(p0,p1,p2,…)\overline{p}=(p_0,p_1,p_2,\ldots), where a message that has experienced kk collisions sends at each subsequent step with probability pkp_k and remains silent with probability 1−pk1-p_k. Aldous's conjecture. No backoff process is stable for any birth rate λ>0\lambda>0. This conjecture generalizes Aldous's result that binary exponential backoff is unstable for every positive birth rate. The paper proves the conjecture, so the claim is solved.

References

Primary source

Leslie Ann Goldberg and John Lapinskas, “The Instability of all Backoff Protocols”, arXiv:2602.21315 (2026).

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