Maillard et al.'s replica prediction for Bayes risk

Consider the generalized linear model with orthogonally invariant design, and let β^B=E[β∗∣X,y]\widehat{\beta}_{\mathrm{B}}=\mathbb{E}[\beta_*\mid X,y] be the posterior mean estimator. Let (q^x∗,q^z∗,γx∗,γz∗,qx∗,qz∗)(\widehat q_x^*,\widehat q_z^*,\gamma_x^*,\gamma_z^*,q_x^*,q_z^*) be a tuple in

[0,∞)4×[0,ρ]×[0,Qz][0,\infty)^4\times[0,\rho]\times[0,Q_z]

solving the replica saddle point equations, where ρ\rho is the signal variance and QzQ_z is defined by the model. Replica Bayes-risk conjecture. There exists such a tuple for which

lim⁡d→∞1dE[∥β∗−β^B∥2]=ρ−qx∗.\lim_{d\to\infty}\frac{1}{d}\mathbb{E}\left[\|\beta_* - \widehat\beta_{\mathrm{B}}\|^2\right]=\rho-q_x^*.

This conjecture predicts the asymptotic Bayes mean-squared error through the replica saddle point equations. The source later relates their solutions to Bayes-GVAMP state-evolution fixed points, but does not establish the asserted asymptotic risk formula in general.

References

Primary source

Yihan Zhang, Hong Chang Ji, Ramji Venkataramanan and Marco Mondelli, “Optimal Estimation in Orthogonally Invariant Generalized Linear Models: Spectral Initialization and Approximate Message Passing”, arXiv:2602.09240 (2026).

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