Maillard et al.'s replica prediction for Bayes risk

From papers

Consider the generalized linear model with orthogonally invariant design, and let β^B=E[βX,y]\widehat{\beta}_{\mathrm{B}}=\mathbb{E}[\beta_*\mid X,y] be the posterior mean estimator. Let (q^x,q^z,γx,γz,qx,qz)(\widehat q_x^*,\widehat q_z^*,\gamma_x^*,\gamma_z^*,q_x^*,q_z^*) be a tuple in

[0,)4×[0,ρ]×[0,Qz][0,\infty)^4\times[0,\rho]\times[0,Q_z]

solving the replica saddle point equations, where ρ\rho is the signal variance and QzQ_z is defined by the model. Replica Bayes-risk conjecture. There exists such a tuple for which

limd1dE[ββ^B2]=ρqx.\lim_{d\to\infty}\frac{1}{d}\mathbb{E}\left[\|\beta_* - \widehat\beta_{\mathrm{B}}\|^2\right]=\rho-q_x^*.

This conjecture predicts the asymptotic Bayes mean-squared error through the replica saddle point equations. The source later relates their solutions to Bayes-GVAMP state-evolution fixed points, but does not establish the asserted asymptotic risk formula in general.

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Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Yihan Zhang, Hong Chang Ji, Ramji Venkataramanan and Marco Mondelli, “Optimal Estimation in Orthogonally Invariant Generalized Linear Models: Spectral Initialization and Approximate Message Passing”, arXiv:2602.09240 (2026).

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