Maillard et al.'s replica prediction for Bayes risk
Maillard et al.'s replica prediction for Bayes risk
Consider the generalized linear model with orthogonally invariant design, and let be the posterior mean estimator. Let be a tuple in
solving the replica saddle point equations, where is the signal variance and is defined by the model. Replica Bayes-risk conjecture. There exists such a tuple for which
This conjecture predicts the asymptotic Bayes mean-squared error through the replica saddle point equations. The source later relates their solutions to Bayes-GVAMP state-evolution fixed points, but does not establish the asserted asymptotic risk formula in general.
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Sources & referencesView supporting material
Primary source
Yihan Zhang, Hong Chang Ji, Ramji Venkataramanan and Marco Mondelli, “Optimal Estimation in Orthogonally Invariant Generalized Linear Models: Spectral Initialization and Approximate Message Passing”, arXiv:2602.09240 (2026).
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