Unlikely Newton polygons and Ekedahl–Oort types for abelian covers

Let g18g \geq 18, and let mm be the least common multiple of the exponents of all of the Galois groups of abelian covers of P1\mathbf{P}^1 branched at three points of genus gg. Unlikely-types conjecture. If pp is a prime such that p≢1p \not \equiv 1 modulo mm, then there exist abelian covers X1X_1 and X2X_2 of P1\mathbf{P}^1 branched at three points defined over Fp\overline{\mathbf{F}_p} such that X1X_1 has an unlikely Newton polygon and X2X_2 has an unlikely Ekedahl–Oort type. The computational evidence suggests that unlikely Newton polygons and Ekedahl–Oort types occur frequently in this family, but the assertion for every prime satisfying the stated congruence condition remains open.

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Primary source

Darren Schmidt, “Ekedahl-Oort Types and Newton Polygons of Abelian Covers of P^1 Branched at Three Points”, arXiv:2602.07693 (2026).

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