Asymptotic normality conjecture for unordered rational-curve moduli spaces
Asymptotic normality conjecture for unordered rational-curve moduli spaces
Let be the moduli space of stable rational curves with marked points, let have one distinguished marked point fixed by the action, and let be the Fulton–MacPherson configuration space. The symmetric group acts by permuting the marked points, and consider the quotient spaces
Asymptotic normality conjecture. The Betti numbers of these three quotient spaces are asymptotically normally distributed, and the associated variances grow linearly at the same rate.
This conjecture extends the established asymptotic normality of the Betti numbers for the corresponding spaces with ordered marked points. Numerical data and asymptotic log-concavity support the claim, but the asserted normality and common linear variance growth remain unproved.
Sources & referencesView supporting material
Primary source
Jinwon Choi and Young-Hoon Kiem, “Asymptotic distribution of the Betti numbers of M_0,n”, arXiv:2601.08369 (2026).
Additional references
2 papers in this index state this conjecture (2012–2026). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:1209.1748.
Progress summary
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