Asymptotic normality conjecture for unordered rational-curve moduli spaces

Let M0,n\overline{\mathcal M}_{0,n} be the moduli space of stable rational curves with nn marked points, let M0,n+1\overline{\mathcal M}_{0,n+1} have one distinguished marked point fixed by the action, and let P1[n]\mathbb{P}^1[n] be the Fulton–MacPherson configuration space. The symmetric group Sn\mathbb{S}_n acts by permuting the marked points, and consider the quotient spaces

M0,n/Sn,M0,n+1/Sn,P1[n]/Sn.\overline{\mathcal M}_{0,n}/\mathbb{S}_n,\qquad \overline{\mathcal M}_{0,n+1}/\mathbb{S}_n,\qquad \mathbb{P}^1[n]/\mathbb{S}_n.

Asymptotic normality conjecture. The Betti numbers of these three quotient spaces are asymptotically normally distributed, and the associated variances grow linearly at the same rate.

This conjecture extends the established asymptotic normality of the Betti numbers for the corresponding spaces with ordered marked points. Numerical data and asymptotic log-concavity support the claim, but the asserted normality and common linear variance growth remain unproved.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Jinwon Choi and Young-Hoon Kiem, “Asymptotic distribution of the Betti numbers of M_0,n”, arXiv:2601.08369 (2026).

Additional references

2 papers in this index state this conjecture (2012–2026). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:1209.1748.

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