The stability-to-noise-sensitivity transition conjecture for geometric last-passage percolation

From papers

Consider planar last-passage percolation with geometric weights. Let Tn(ω)T_n(\omega) and Tn(ω~t)T_n(\tilde\omega^t) denote the last-passage times in the original and site-resampled environments, respectively, where tt is the resampling parameter. Stability-to-noise-sensitivity transition conjecture. The transition from stability to noise sensitivity occurs at tn1/3t\asymp n^{-1/3} in the sense that, as nn\to\infty, (i) for tn1/3t\ll n^{-1/3},

Corr(Tn(ω),Tn(ω~t))=1o(1);\operatorname{Corr}\big(T_n(\omega),T_n(\tilde\omega^t)\big)=1-o(1);

and (ii) for tn1/3t\gg n^{-1/3},

Corr(Tn(ω),Tn(ω~t))=o(1).\operatorname{Corr}\big(T_n(\omega),T_n(\tilde\omega^t)\big)=o(1).

This conjecture predicts the KPZ-scale transition between stability and noise sensitivity for geometric last-passage percolation; the supplied context gives evidence for the scale but does not establish the stated correlation behavior in both regimes.

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Primary source

Daniel Ahlberg, Malo Hillairet and Ekaterina Toropova, “Noise sensitivity in last-passage percolation”, arXiv:2601.05361 (2026).

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