Quantum uncertainty conjecture for portfolio risk and returns

From papers

Let c3riskc3_{risk} and c3returnsc3_{returns} denote the standard deviations of portfolio risk and returns, respectively, as defined in modern portfolio theory. Let b6b6 be a lower bound influenced by quantum-mechanical principles, potentially depending on Planck's constant hh through b6(h)b6(h). Quantum risk-return uncertainty conjecture. The product of these standard deviations should satisfy

σriskσreturnsζ.\sigma_{risk}\sigma_{returns}\geq\zeta.

The proposed bound is motivated by an analogy with the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and is expected to be determined by the ground state of the measurement system under adiabatic conditions via the Schrödinger equation. Its validity and the precise dependence of b6b6 on hh are not established.

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Primary source

Pablo Thomassin, Guillaume Guerard, Sonia Djebali and Vincent Marc Lambert, “A Quantum Model for Constrained Markowitz Modern Portfolio Using Slack Variables to Process Mixed-Binary Optimization under QAOA”, arXiv:2601.03278 (2025).

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