Random permanent zero-probability conjecture over finite fields

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Let pp be an odd prime and let q=pmq=p^m be a fixed power. Let AA be a uniformly random n×nn\times n matrix with entries in the finite field Fq\mathbb{F}_q.

Random permanent zero-probability conjecture.

Pr⁡[per⁡A=0]=1q+o(1).\Pr[\operatorname{per} A=0]=\frac{1}{q}+o(1).

This conjecture asserts that, for fixed odd-characteristic finite fields, the permanent of a random matrix is zero with asymptotic probability 1/q1/q, as would be expected if the permanent behaved like a random polynomial. The statement concerns the asymptotic regime n→∞n\to\infty; the source provides no evidence that it has been resolved.

References

Primary source

Fatemeh Ghasemi, Gal Gross and Swastik Kopparty, “Permanental rank versus determinantal rank of random matrices over finite fields”, arXiv:2512.03221 (2025).

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