Non-concavity conjecture for the critical curve of long-range percolation

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Let d2d\geq 2, let k>1k>1, and consider the critical curve pqc(p)p\mapsto q_c(p) for the case m=2m=2 and l=1l=1 of long-range percolation on an oriented dd-ary tree. For a function qcq_c, concavity on an interval means that its graph lies above every chord joining two points of the graph.

Non-concavity conjecture. There exists δ=δ(k,d)>0\delta=\delta(k,d)>0 such that pqc(p)p\mapsto q_c(p) is not concave on [0,δ][0,\delta].

This claim formalizes the observation that the critical curve, contrary to an intuitive concave depiction, appears convex near p=0p=0 when l=1l=1 and k2k\geq 2. The supplied text does not state whether the claim has been proved or remains open.

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Primary source

Olivier Couronné, Sandro Gallo and Leonardo T. Rolla, “The critical curve of long-range percolation on oriented trees”, arXiv:2510.03922 (2025).

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