The 1/3–2/3 conjecture for linear extensions of posets

From papers

Let PP be a finite poset that is not a chain. For distinct x,yPx,y\in P, write δxy=minp(xy),p(yx)\delta_{xy}=\min\\{p(x\prec y),p(y\prec x)\\} and δ(P)=maxxyδxy\delta(P)=\max_{x\ne y}\delta_{xy}. The 1/3–2/3 conjecture.

δ(P)13.\delta(P)\geq \frac13.

This is a central balancing conjecture for uniformly random linear extensions. It was proposed by Kislitsyn and independently by Fredman and Linial; the conjecture remains open in general, although many special classes of posets are known and a positive universal constant is known.

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Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Max Aires and Jeff Kahn, “Balancing Extensions in Posets of Large Width”, arXiv:2509.11549 (2025).

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