Weak Goldfeld positive-proportion conjecture

Let EE be a fixed elliptic curve over Q\mathbb{Q} and let E(d)E^{(d)} be its quadratic twists. For X>0X>0, let

Nr(X):={d<Xran(E(d))=r}.N_r(X):=\left|\left\{|d|<X\mid r_{an}(E^{(d)})=r\right\}\right|.

Weak Goldfeld conjecture. For each r{0,1}r\in\{0,1\},

lim infXNr(X){d<X}>0.\liminf_{X\to\infty}\frac{N_r(X)}{\left|\{|d|<X\}\right|}>0.

This weaker form asks only for a positive proportion of twists of analytic rank zero and one, rather than the 50%50\% proportions in Goldfeld's conjecture; the supplied text presents it as unresolved in general.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Priyavrat Deshpande, Aditya Karnataki and Pratiksha Shingavekar, “Unveiling Arithmetic Statistics of Congruent Number Elliptic Curves via Data Science and Machine Learning”, arXiv:2509.03129 (2025).

Additional references

4 papers in this index state this conjecture (2016–2025). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:2108.06034, arXiv:1609.06687, arXiv:1606.03172.

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