The Strong 2R-Conjecture for Hegselmann–Krause cluster locations

From papers

For each λ>0\lambda>0, let Ξλ(0)\Xi_{\lambda}^{(0)} be a simple stationary renewal process on R\mathbb{R} satisfying the functional strong law of large numbers, and let Ξλ(t)\Xi_{\lambda}^{(t)} denote the Hegselmann–Krause evolution, with Ξλ():=limtΞλ(t)\Xi_{\lambda}^{(\infty)}:=\lim_{t\to\infty}\Xi_{\lambda}^{(t)}. Let Xλ(i)X_{\lambda}(i) be the number of points in the ii-th limiting cluster. Strong 2R-Conjecture. The joint locations of the clusters of limλΞλ()\lim_{\lambda\to\infty}\Xi_{\lambda}^{(\infty)} should be distributed as θ+2Z\theta+2\mathbb{Z}, where θUnif(1,1)\theta\sim\mathrm{Unif}(-1,1), and the cluster sizes should satisfy

(1λXλ(i))iZa.s.(,2,2,2,).\left(\frac{1}{\lambda}X_{\lambda}(i)\right)_{i\in\mathbb{Z}}\xrightarrow{a.s.}(\ldots,2,2,2,\ldots).

The source presents this as a stronger, simulation-supported refinement of the weak 2R result: the expected gap converges to 22, whereas this conjecture predicts a stationary lattice of cluster locations and normalized cluster sizes converging jointly to 22.

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Primary source

Partha S. Dey, S. Rasoul Etesami and Aditya S. Gopalan, “The 2R-Conjecture for the Hegselmann–Krause Model: A Proof in Expectation and New Directions”, arXiv:2508.08299 (2025).

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