The barcode-process universality conjecture in the waterfall region

Let (t,x)(\mathsf{t},\mathsf{x}) be a macroscopic point in the waterfall region W\mathcal{W}, and let qq and κ\kappa be the model parameters. Let Kbarcode(s,t)\mathcal{K}^{\mathrm{barcode}}(s,t) be the symmetric kernel described by the limiting regularized series, and let N<T\mathsf{N}<\mathsf{T} denote the condition that the waterfall phase is present. Barcode-process universality conjecture. Around any macroscopic point (t,x)W(\mathsf{t},\mathsf{x})\in\mathcal{W}, the random configuration of square lozenges on a horizontal slice converges to a determinantal barcode process on Z\mathbb{Z} with correlation kernel Kbarcode(s,t)\mathcal{K}^{\mathrm{barcode}}(s,t). This process depends only on qq and κ\kappa, is 2×22\times2 block Toeplitz, satisfies Kbarcode(0,0)=1Kbarcode(1,1)\mathcal{K}^{\mathrm{barcode}}(0,0)=1-\mathcal{K}^{\mathrm{barcode}}(1,1), has global density 1/21/2, and is invariant under even but not odd shifts. The conjecture describes universal local statistics throughout the waterfall phase, independently of the hexagon geometry and macroscopic location; the existence and properties of the limiting kernel are supported by numerical and simulation evidence but are not established rigorously.

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Primary source

Alisa Knizel and Leonid Petrov, “Random Lozenge Waterfall: Dimensional Collapse of Gibbs Measures”, arXiv:2507.22011 (2025).

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