The critical two-dimensional KPZ scaling-limit conjecture

Let Ztϑ(1,Bε(x))\mathscr{Z}^\vartheta_t(1,B_\varepsilon(x)) denote the mass of the critical 22-dimensional stochastic heat flow at time tt in the ball Bε(x)B_\varepsilon(x), and let Cc(R2)C_c(\mathbb{R}^2) be the space of compactly supported continuous functions. For a test function ψCc(R2)\psi\in C_c(\mathbb{R}^2), consider the centered, rescaled spatial integral

R21b(ε)(logZtϑ(1,Bε(x))E[logZtϑ(1,Bε(x))])ψ(x)dx.\int_{\mathbb{R}^2}\frac{1}{b(\varepsilon)}\left(\log \mathscr{Z}^\vartheta_t(1,B_\varepsilon(x))-E[\log \mathscr{Z}^\vartheta_t(1,B_\varepsilon(x))]\right)\psi(x)\,\mathrm{d}x.

Critical KPZ scaling-limit conjecture. There exists a non-random function b(ε)>0b(\varepsilon)>0 with b(ε)b(\varepsilon)\to\infty as ε0\varepsilon\to0 such that, for every ψCc(R2)\psi\in C_c(\mathbb{R}^2), the displayed random variable converges weakly to a nontrivial random variable ht(ψ)\mathfrak{h}_t(\psi).

This formulates the expected nontrivial scaling limit for spatial averages of the logarithmic mass in the critical two-dimensional KPZ equation. The paper establishes integrability and upper bounds for the lower tail of the logarithmic mass, but does not identify such a normalization or prove the asserted convergence.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Makoto Nakashima, “An upper bound of the lower tail of the mass of balls under the critical 2d stochastic heat flow”, arXiv:2507.18080 (2026).

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