The critical two-dimensional KPZ scaling-limit conjecture

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Let Ztϑ(1,Bε(x))\mathscr{Z}^\vartheta_t(1,B_\varepsilon(x)) denote the mass of the critical 22-dimensional stochastic heat flow at time tt in the ball Bε(x)B_\varepsilon(x), and let Cc(R2)C_c(\mathbb{R}^2) be the space of compactly supported continuous functions. For a test function ψ∈Cc(R2)\psi\in C_c(\mathbb{R}^2), consider the centered, rescaled spatial integral

∫R21b(ε)(log⁡Ztϑ(1,Bε(x))−E[log⁡Ztϑ(1,Bε(x))])ψ(x) dx.\int_{\mathbb{R}^2}\frac{1}{b(\varepsilon)}\left(\log \mathscr{Z}^\vartheta_t(1,B_\varepsilon(x))-E[\log \mathscr{Z}^\vartheta_t(1,B_\varepsilon(x))]\right)\psi(x)\,\mathrm{d}x.

Critical KPZ scaling-limit conjecture. There exists a non-random function b(ε)>0b(\varepsilon)>0 with b(ε)→∞b(\varepsilon)\to\infty as ε→0\varepsilon\to0 such that, for every ψ∈Cc(R2)\psi\in C_c(\mathbb{R}^2), the displayed random variable converges weakly to a nontrivial random variable ht(ψ)\mathfrak{h}_t(\psi).

This formulates the expected nontrivial scaling limit for spatial averages of the logarithmic mass in the critical two-dimensional KPZ equation. The paper establishes integrability and upper bounds for the lower tail of the logarithmic mass, but does not identify such a normalization or prove the asserted convergence.

References

Primary source

Makoto Nakashima, “An upper bound of the lower tail of the mass of balls under the critical 2d stochastic heat flow”, arXiv:2507.18080 (2026).

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