The FDH optimality conjecture for m-shelf shuffles

Let H2mH_{2m} be the 2m2mth harmonic number, and let FG(n,m)F^{\mathbf{G}}(n,m) denote the expected number of correct guesses made by the strategy G\mathbf{G} for a deck of nn cards subjected to an mm-shelf shuffle. Assume that n/mn/m is not too small. FDH optimality conjecture. The strategy G\mathbf{G} discussed by FDH should be optimal in a high-probability case, and its expected number of correct guesses satisfies

FG(n,m)≈n2mH2m=n2m∑k=12m1k.F^{\mathbf{G}}(n,m)\approx\frac{n}{2m}H_{2m}=\frac{n}{2m}\sum_{k=1}^{2m}\frac{1}{k}.

The source motivates this as a generalization of the one-shelf result and notes its applicability when the ratio of cards to shelves is not too small, but the meaning of “high-probability case” and the approximation are not made precise in the supplied statement.

References

Primary source

Alexander Clay, “Guessing Strategies for Shuffling Machines”, arXiv:2507.10294 (2025).

Progress summary

Never refreshed

Nothing recorded yet. Refresh searches the literature and the public web for attempts on this problem, and writes the first summary here.

Solutions 0

No solutions have been posted yet.