The conjectured quadratic eigenvector for the position matrix

From papers

Let MM be the position matrix of the one-shelf shuffling machine, with entries Mij=pi,jM_{ij}=p_{i,j}, where pi,jp_{i,j} is the probability that the card initially in position ii ends in position jj. For n3n\geq 3, define a vector v\vec{v} by

vk=n23nk+3k(k+1)21.v_k=n^2-3nk+\frac{3k(k+1)}{2}-1.

The quadratic eigenvector conjecture. MM has an eigenvalue-eigenvector pair (14,v)(\frac{1}{4},\vec{v}) with multiplicity at least 11. Numerical computation suggests this eigenvector formula; the conjecture concerns the spectrum of the position matrix and remains unproved in the supplied text.

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Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Alexander Clay, “Guessing Strategies for Shuffling Machines”, arXiv:2507.10294 (2025).

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