Typical-orbit conjecture for interval-closed sets of products of two chains

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Fix a positive integer mm. Let r(n)r(n) be the fraction of interval-closed sets of [m]×[n][m]\times[n] that belong to rowmotion orbits of size m+n+1m+n+1. Typical-orbit conjecture. For every positive integer mm, one has

r(n)→1as n→∞.r(n)\to 1\quad\text{as }n\to\infty.

This conjecture predicts that although rowmotion on interval-closed sets can have complicated behavior and large order, almost all interval-closed sets lie in orbits of the indicated size as nn grows. The source presents this as supported by experimental evidence and outlines a possible proof strategy, but does not establish it.

References

Primary source

Nadia Lafrenière, Joel Brewster Lewis, Erin McNicholas, Jessica Striker and Amanda Welch, “Interval-closed set rowmotion and homomesy on products of two chains”, arXiv:2505.04000 (2025).

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