Higher-order derivative probability-ratio conjecture in the torus model

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Fix k≥3k\geq 3. Let SS be a sufficiently general kk-element set of edges and let S′⊂SS'\subset S have cardinality k−1k-1. Write ∂Sf\partial_S f and ∂S′f\partial_{S'} f for the corresponding environment derivatives.

Derivative probability-ratio conjecture. There exists a constant θ∈(0,d/2)\theta\in(0,d/2) such that

nθP(∂Sf≠0)≈P(∂S′f≠0).n^\theta\mathbb P(\partial_S f\neq 0)\approx\mathbb P(\partial_{S'} f\neq 0).

This conjecture is identified as the harder estimate needed, for at least one k≥3k\geq 3, to improve variance bounds in the torus model. The meanings of “sufficiently general” and the comparison symbol ≈\approx are not defined in the supplied text.

References

Primary source

Ivan Matic, Rados Radoicic and Dan Stefanica, “Higher-order derivatives of first-passage percolation with respect to the environment”, arXiv:2504.08935 (2026).

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