Higher-order derivative probability-ratio conjecture in the torus model

Fix k3k\geq 3. Let SS be a sufficiently general kk-element set of edges and let SSS'\subset S have cardinality k1k-1. Write Sf\partial_S f and Sf\partial_{S'} f for the corresponding environment derivatives.

Derivative probability-ratio conjecture. There exists a constant θ(0,d/2)\theta\in(0,d/2) such that

nθP(Sf0)P(Sf0).n^\theta\mathbb P(\partial_S f\neq 0)\approx\mathbb P(\partial_{S'} f\neq 0).

This conjecture is identified as the harder estimate needed, for at least one k3k\geq 3, to improve variance bounds in the torus model. The meanings of “sufficiently general” and the comparison symbol \approx are not defined in the supplied text.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Ivan Matic, Rados Radoicic and Dan Stefanica, “Higher-order derivatives of first-passage percolation with respect to the environment”, arXiv:2504.08935 (2026).

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