Conjecture on comparable probabilities of essential and influential edges

From papers

For an edge jj, let EjE_j be the event that every geodesic passes through jj, let E^j\hat E_j be the event that at least one geodesic passes through jj, let AjA_j be the event that jf(ω)0\partial_j f(\omega)\neq 0, and let A^j\hat A_j be the event that jf(ω)=ba\partial_j f(\omega)=b-a. The paper considers these events in the first-passage percolation environment.

Comparability conjecture. There exists a constant CC independent of nn such that

P(Aj)CP(A^j),P(E^j)CP(Ej),P(E^j)CP(A^j).\mathbb P(A_j)\leq C\mathbb P(\hat A_j),\qquad \mathbb P(\hat E_j)\leq C\mathbb P(E_j),\qquad \mathbb P(\hat E_j)\leq C\mathbb P(\hat A_j).

The conjecture would show that the probabilities of the four edge categories are comparable in the stated directions. The paper notes that the result is natural but was not needed there and that its proof is not obvious.

Progress summary

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Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Ivan Matic, Rados Radoicic and Dan Stefanica, “Higher-order derivatives of first-passage percolation with respect to the environment”, arXiv:2504.08935 (2026).

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